After Berlin

Written by Andrew Duff MEP and published in ft.com on Mon 2nd Apr 2007

'That is why today, 50 years after the signing of the Treaties of Rome, we are united in our aim of placing the European Union on a renewed common basis before the European Parliament elections in 2009'. Thus the Berlin Declaration of 25 March, drafted with panache by the German presidency of the European Union. Reporting back to MEPs last week, Chancellor Merkel called for decisive action to sort out the EU's internal problems. We should not get caught up by our own problems, she said, because there are other pressing matters to deal with. Merkel evidently takes a dim view of those of her EU colleagues who for spurious or opportunistic reasons may impede a rapid solution to the constitutional crisis.

As ever, for there to be a new consensus, all must compromise. To help things along, Merkel has dropped Germany's traditional reluctance to extending qualified majority voting to justice and home affairs. She has also signalled that a refurbished common energy policy based on solidarity among states will feature in the new package.

Merkel plans to broker an agreement at the European Council on 21-22 June on the schedule, process and mandate of the new Intergovernmental Conference (IGC). The aim is to finish the IGC by Christmas. The mandate will be as tight as possible, indicating precisely what can and what cannot be opened up for renegotiation.

Clearly, some member states are intending to be more troublesome than others. Top of the list of troublemakers is The Netherlands, where the new government has issued a long-winded letter to MPs (19 March) setting out its demands. Unhelpfully, the Dutch call into question some key elements of the 2004 constitution. The renegotiated treaty should be 'convincingly different' in terms of 'content, size and name' to that signed in 2004 by their very same Dutch prime minister Balkenende. Instead of a radical, consolidating treaty, the Dutch now want merely an amending treaty 'without constitutional pretensions'. They insist on increasing the powers of national parliaments to second-guess the EU institutions. The new treaty should 'prevent EU legislation from interfering, either directly or indirectly, with our national social programmes or the quality of our public services'. More positively, the Dutch government supports the idea of inserting a new treaty chapter laying down the rules and criteria for the future enlargement of the Union.

As much of this complaint about the 2004 treaty is for domestic consumption, and designed solely to extricate Balkenende and his colleagues from their foolish flight to referendum, it will be interesting to see precisely which articles the Dutch actually propose to change. The suppression of the symbols of the Union - the flag, the anthem and Schuman Day - is scarcely likely to be taken seriously in other capitals. And if the 'renewed common basis' of Berlin means that the new treaty will be called 'Basic Law' rather than 'Treaty establishing a Constitution', the Dutch, who already describe it as 'grondwet', will hardly be helped. (Nor, incidentally, will the public, who, in their vulgar way, will continue to refer to the 'constitution'.)

Unfortunately, the Dutch are not alone in wishing to upset the balance of power between the institutions so painstakingly brokered in the negotiations of 2002-04. They are joined by the Czechs, whose main governing party is aligned with the British Conservatives in favour of a weaker EU. The Poles, meanwhile, insist on upsetting the equally sensitive balance of power among the member states. Warsaw would return to the Council voting system of the Treaty of Nice which privileges Poland.

Chancellor Merkel is counting on winning the support of the two jokers in the pack, France and the UK. We will not know who the new French president is before 6 May, but none of the three top contenders for the job - Sarkozy, Royale or Bayrou are likely to be in any way sympathetic to Dutch, Polish or Czech distractions.

Gordon Brown is partly known to Angela Merkel. Apparently the son of a Lutheran pastor and the daughter of a Calvinist pastor have more in common than meets the eye. If Brown is clever, which we can be reasonably assured he is, he will work fast to settle the EU constitutional matter. He needs to bring home a treaty which is better than Tony Blair's. If the new package deal achieves some long-standing objectives of British EU policy he can wing it through the House of Commons. Brown's agenda will include measures to strengthen the capacity of the EU to achieve the Lisbon agenda and to encourage the structural reform of the continental economies. He needs to consolidate enlargement, toughen the common energy policy, up-grade environmental policy and modernise the CAP. Brown is no longer the 'hyper-globalist' excoriated by Peter Mandelson. He accepts the EU as an instrument with the potential to help shape Britain's response to the challenges of globalisation. And come the IGC Brown could be very helpful in persuading the Dutch, Poles and Czechs to drop their recalcitrance.

What the new British prime minister and the new French president will need to do immediately is to cut a deal on the future finances of the Union. The European Parliament has shown how. In accepting the proposals of MEP Alain Lamassoure (advisor to Nicolas Sarkozy), Parliament voted on 29 March to scrap VAT as one of the sources of EU revenue and to concentrate instead on the fairer and simpler system of national contributions based on GNI. In addition, Parliament wants France to accept 50 per cent national co-financing of the CAP in return for the UK agreeing to phase out its provocative rebate. There's an Anglo-French deal waiting to be done there, under German tutelage.

What nobody knows is how bold Brown and his new partner in the Elysée will prove to be. If they reject the German invitation to improve the 2004 treaty and, instead, only succeed in impoverishing it, they may bring comfort to the Dutch, Poles and Czechs. But Europe and the wider world will be the loser.

Andrew Duff's 'Constitution Plus': renegotiating the treaty is available at www.andrewduff.eu.